Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The dominant force is a genuine, active geopolitical supply shock — US-Iran kinetic conflict is disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium simultaneously, creating a structural risk premium that ceasefire rumours are only partially offsetting.

WTI has broken above the $83 five-week high and is pressing toward the $84.68 recent swing high, driven by a tenth consecutive day of US strikes on Iran and a Houthi maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia tightening Hormuz and Red Sea supply routes.

Main risk

Iran Ceasefire / Diplomatic Resolution

Reports of a possible 10-day ceasefire and Iranian Foreign Ministry signals of renewed US-Iran negotiations could rapidly deflate the $5–8 geopolitical risk premium, driving WTI back toward the pre-conflict $76–78 zone.