Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The US-Iran war has entered its tenth consecutive night of strikes with Hormuz tanker traffic in near-collapse — today's -1.17% dip is a technical pullback, not a trend reversal, as the physical supply shock remains fully intact.

WTI is holding above the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at $82.09 after a 20% monthly surge driven by active US-Iran military conflict, with Strait of Hormuz traffic severely disrupted and analyst targets above $100.

Main risk

US-Iran ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough

Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed negotiations could resume and mediators have presented ceasefire proposals; a verified 10-day truce would rapidly deflate the geopolitical risk premium and expose WTI to a $10–15 flush toward the $68–$72 range.