Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

A near-finalised US-Iran-Oman 60-day interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is the dominant price driver: if Iran's supreme leader signs off, the geopolitical risk premium built into WTI since the conflict began will rapidly deflate toward the $70–$72 demand floor.

WTI is trading at $75.85, clinging to the $76 psychological level after back-to-back 5%+ daily losses driven by imminent Strait of Hormuz deal optimism, with the 50-day MA at ~$78.50 now acting as firm overhead resistance.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz deal collapse or Houthi escalation

Houthis have already attacked a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea this week — any breakdown in the US-Iran draft agreement or a fresh Houthi strike on major oil infrastructure could instantly reverse the selloff and spike WTI back above $80.