Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The imminent Strait of Hormuz deal is the single biggest near-term catalyst: if Iran's supreme leader approves the draft agreement, the geopolitical risk premium collapses and WTI could accelerate toward the $70 structural support zone.

WTI is pressing 3-week lows at $74.27 as a near-finalized US-Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz reopening deal threatens to remove the key geopolitical risk premium that has supported prices above $75.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal — Final Approval

AP reports Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a 60-day interim draft deal; supreme leader approval would erase the conflict premium that has kept WTI elevated, with immediate downside risk to the $70.00–$71.00 range.