Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

A potential 60-day interim Strait of Hormuz reopening deal, awaiting only Iran's supreme leader approval, is the single biggest near-term bearish catalyst — if confirmed today, WTI likely retests the $70–$71 support zone.

WTI has broken to a 3-week low at $74.27, pressured by a near-finalized US-Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz deal that would restore disrupted supply, with the 50-day MA (~$76.50) now acting as overhead resistance.

Main risk

Houthi Red Sea Escalation Counter-Rally

Houthi rebels reported a fresh attack on a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea on August 5, threatening to reverse geopolitical risk-premium deflation and push WTI back above the key $76.50 resistance level.