Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The geopolitical risk premium that catapulted WTI above $119 is rapidly unwinding: Strait of Hormuz diplomacy is in its "final stage," and if a deal is confirmed, WTI could retest the pre-conflict base near $65–$68, erasing months of war-driven gains.

WTI has crashed from a 52-week high of $119.47 (March 9, 2026) to $74.52 — a near 38% drawdown — as US-Iran diplomacy progresses and Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes crush the geopolitical risk premium that drove the Q1 spike.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy Breakthrough

US Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged a possible deal within days to reopen the strait; confirmation would eliminate the core supply-disruption premium and could send WTI sharply toward the pre-Iran-conflict base near $65.