Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The single most important factor right now is the Strait of Hormuz deal narrative: if the US-Iran agreement is formalised, the geopolitical supply-risk premium — estimated at $8–12/bbl — will be rapidly unwound, sending WTI toward the $65–68 range.

WTI has broken below the key $76 round-number support for a second consecutive session, driven by accelerating US-Iran Strait of Hormuz diplomacy that threatens to remove the geopolitical risk premium that had underpinned prices.

Main risk

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal Formalisation

Treasury Secretary Bessent stated there is a chance of a deal 'today or tomorrow' to reopen the strait; confirmation would collapse the supply-disruption premium and likely push WTI below the $72 prior support zone.