Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The collapse of the US-Iran interim ceasefire — with Iran intercepting vessels at Hormuz, a Kuwait oil facility struck, and Russian CPC terminal loadings halted — has injected the most acute multi-source supply shock this cycle; WTI's intraday reversal from $84.68 to $83 is a dip within an uptrend, not a trend change.

WTI is holding above the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at $82.09 and the short-term ascending trendline while the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz conflict sustains a structural supply-disruption premium.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomatic Re-engagement / Ceasefire Revival

Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed receipt of international mediator proposals including a reported 10-day pause in hostilities; any credible deal would immediately flush the $5–10 geopolitical risk premium, sending WTI sharply toward the $77–78 zone.