Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

WTI is trading well below other real-time reference feeds (~$79–$81), signalling that the IG CFD price reflects an accelerated intraday sell-off — the Strait of Hormuz standoff narrative has flipped from bullish supply shock to bearish demand-destruction risk as Trump-Iran talks stall and global growth fears resurface.

WTI has broken below the key $78.50 support zone (June 2026 consolidation base) and is trading at $76.74, down 2.70% on the day, as US-Iran diplomatic uncertainty and OPEC+ supply concerns overwhelm any geopolitical risk premium from Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Reopening / US-Iran Deal

If Trump and Tehran reach a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a significant geopolitical risk premium — estimated at $4–$6/bbl — would rapidly unwind, pushing WTI toward the $70–$72 demand zone.