Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The Trump-Iran ceasefire pivot has removed the immediate supply-shock premium, but persistent Strait of Hormuz blockade risk, a 7.2M-barrel US inventory drawdown, and Ukraine drone strikes hammering Russian refining keep the floor firm near $78–$79.

WTI is staging a modest Tuesday rebound to $80.03 after Monday's 5% diplomatic-driven selloff, but remains capped below the key $82 resistance (prior consolidation high) as Strait of Hormuz de-escalation overhangs the bid.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy Collapse vs. Deal

If US-Iran negotiations fail and military action resumes, WTI could gap back above $85 instantly; conversely, a confirmed reopening of the Strait would accelerate the selloff below $76.