Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The entire 20%+ July rally in WTI was built on a Middle East war premium that is now being rapidly priced out — a diplomatic pivot between Washington and Tehran has restored Strait of Hormuz flow expectations and risks a retest of pre-conflict support near $72–$74.

WTI has crashed ~5% in a single session from the July high near $85, breaking below the key $80 round number as the US-Iran geopolitical risk premium is aggressively unwound following Trump's call-off of a planned military strike.

Main risk

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Collapse / Re-escalation Risk

If US-Iran talks break down or Iran resumes tanker harassment in the Strait of Hormuz, the war premium could snap back sharply and drive WTI above the $81.30 session high toward the July peak at $85.