Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

Oil has shed ~$7 in one session — a fast-moving repricing of war premium, not a demand shock — meaning the speed of diplomatic developments, not fundamentals, now drives intraday direction.

WTI has crashed from Friday's $85+ highs to $77.98 in a single session as Washington-Tehran diplomatic progress rapidly unwinds the entire geopolitical risk premium built during the 2026 US-Iran conflict.

Main risk

US-Iran Ceasefire Breakdown / Re-escalation

Any collapse in Washington-Tehran peace talks or a new incident in the Strait of Hormuz could instantly re-inject a $5–10 war premium, reversing today's selloff from $85 back toward prior highs.