Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is the single dominant driver: every diplomatic de-escalation headline pulls oil lower, but every new Iranian tanker attack or US military strike resets the geopolitical risk premium — making the $80–$88 range the battlefield until a durable ceasefire or supply rerouting is confirmed.

WTI holds above the key $83 round-number support after a violent 6.6% geopolitical spike, with the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption risk still unresolved and Iran attacks on tankers continuing to underpin the risk premium.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Diplomatic De-escalation

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry confirmed US-Iran negotiations are 'ongoing' and Hormuz tanker crossings recovered to 14 vessels/day from single-digit lows — a full diplomatic deal would collapse the ~$8-10 geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in WTI.