Crude Oil (WTI)

Key insight

The dominant price driver right now is a live US-Iran military conflict, not macro fundamentals — any breakdown in ongoing diplomatic talks or new Iranian infrastructure attack could trigger a rapid move toward $90–$93, while a credible ceasefire would flush $5–$8 off the price quickly.

WTI has surged ~$5 from the $79.26 low printed on July 28, reclaiming the $84 handle on a combination of US-Iran military escalation, Strait of Hormuz supply risk, and reported attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure — all of which are structural upside catalysts until diplomacy meaningfully resolves.

Main risk

US-Iran Ceasefire / Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry confirmed ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz shipping has already recovered to 14 vessel transits on Wednesday from single-digit crossings last week — a sustained diplomatic breakthrough could rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in the $84 price.