DAX 40

Key insight

Germany's Q2 GDP beat (0.2% QoQ, 0.9% annualised) and Eurozone Q2 GDP surge to 0.4% QoQ provide the fundamental underpinning for a renewed assault on the all-time high at 25,900, but a rising ECB deposit rate at 2.25% and German July CPI accelerating toward 2.7% YoY cap the upside and keep the ECB in tightening mode — a headwind for rate-sensitive index heavyweights.

The DAX is trading at 25,731, just 168 points — less than 0.7% — below its all-time intraday record of 25,900.10, supported by a beat on Q2 German GDP (0.2% QoQ vs 0.1% expected), HSBC's upgrade of German equities to "overweight" for H2 2026, and Chancellor Merz's fiscal reform package lifting business morale.

Main risk

Middle East Strait of Hormuz Escalation / Oil Price Spike

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed fighting over the Strait of Hormuz — which handles 20% of global oil — is the primary tail risk; a fresh escalation could spike energy costs, reignite Eurozone inflation above 3%, and force a further ECB rate hike beyond 2.25%, pressuring DAX exporters and rate-sensitive sectors.