TradingBrief

European Indices · Briefing

DAX 40

Bullish Sep 25, 2026, 8:21 PM

25,544 holds above the 2026 breakout base near 25,000; EUR/USD at 1.1393 is manageable for exporters while Oil at 92.3 supports energy names. Momentum stays intact above the 50-day MA near 24,800.

25,549.69
↗ +0.61% · 24h · EUR

Key insight

25,544 trades 0.6% higher on the week — breakout above 25,000 round-number resistance is confirmed; next technical objective is the measured extension at 26,000, with the all-time-high zone above 26,200 as the ultimate bull target.

Main risk

EUR/USD strength above 1.14

EUR/USD at 1.1393 squeezes DAX exporter margins; a break above 1.1450 would amplify earnings headwinds for autos and industrials near resistance at 25,800.

Price levels

Levels around the price

Current price highlighted.

Bull Target 2Fib 161.8% extension +4.9 % 26,800.00
Bull Target 12026 all-time high zone +2.5 % 26,200.00
Resistance 2Round-number / extension target +1.8 % 26,000.00
Resistance 1Short-term supply cluster +1.0 % 25,800.00
Current 25,549.69
Support 1Round-number breakout base -2.2 % 25,000.00
Support 250-day MA -2.9 % 24,800.00
Hard StopBreak of 200-day MA ~24,200 voids breakout thesis and reopens April gap. -5.3 % 24,200.00
Bear Target -8.0 % 23,500.00
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Scenarios

Bull and bear

Bull scenario Prob. high

Breakout Extends to ATH

Momentum above 25,000 targets 26,000 round number, then ATH at 26,200.

Target 26,200.00

Triggers

  • —ECB pivots dovish, cutting rates at next meeting
  • —S&P 500 holds 7,741 — global risk appetite stays bid
  • —Close above 25,800 supply cluster on strong volume
Bear scenario Prob. low

EUR Surge Stalls Rally

25,000 lost triggers return to 50-day MA at 24,800 then 200-day at 24,200.

Target 24,200.00

Triggers

  • —EUR/USD breaks above 1.1450, pressuring exporter EPS
  • —DAX closes below 25,000 round-number support
  • —ECB signals further rate hold, dampening credit growth
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Macro drivers

What is moving the price

ECB Rate Policy

bullish

ECB hold near terminal rate signals next move is a cut; rate-sensitive German industrials re-rate higher.

EUR/USD at 1.1393

bearish

Strong euro compresses DAX exporter margins; auto and chemical sectors most exposed above 1.1400.

Oil at $92.3/bbl

bullish

Brent at 92.3 lifts energy sector earnings and supports German chemical feedstock revenues.

Gold at $4,290 / Safe-Haven Bid

neutral

Gold near record highs signals residual macro caution but has not triggered equity outflows yet.

USD/JPY at 157.3 (-1%)

bearish

Yen strength pressures global carry trades; reduces appetite for high-beta European equities.

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Key dates

What is coming next

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Key dates and the concrete TradingBrief view

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This briefing was generated automatically by AI and published on Sep 25, 2026, 8:21 PM. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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