DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX has rebounded ~700 points from its Iran-war lows but faces a dual ceiling: the July 6 record at 25,900 and a hawkish Fed signal risk after the July 29 FOMC meeting, where markets were pricing a 100% chance of a September hike.

The DAX trades at 25,546.90 — sandwiched between the July 6 all-time high of 25,900.10 and the key 25,000 psychological support — with the post-FOMC reaction (July 29) and Adidas' 16% earnings collapse pulling in opposite directions.

Main risk

Fed Rate Hike Signal + Iran Strait of Hormuz Closure

The FOMC met July 28-29 with markets pricing 100% probability of a September hike; any hawkish guidance combined with ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and elevated oil prices at $82 could cap euro-zone risk appetite and weigh on DAX export earnings.