DAX 40

Key insight

Today is a triple-event data day — German Q2 GDP, German CPI, and US Q2 GDP/PCE — arriving just hours after the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%; the confluence of these prints will determine whether the DAX re-tests its all-time high at 25,900 or rolls over toward the 200-day EMA near 23,800.

The DAX is consolidating at 25,362 — caught between a US-Iran ceasefire-driven relief rally and the drag from a hawkish ECB rate hike in June plus a critical German GDP/CPI data dump on July 30 that could reset ECB expectations entirely.

Main risk

ECB June Rate Hike Reversal Risk / Stagflation Signal

The ECB raised rates 25bp in June 2026 (first hike in three years) amid energy-driven inflation, and if today's German Q2 GDP confirms a contraction while CPI stays elevated, it creates a stagflation signal that could force ECB to stay hawkish and compress DAX multiples.