DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX is at a critical inflection point: a confirmed hold above 25,500 with a dovish-leaning Fed tonight would open a clear technical path to retest the all-time high at 25,900.10, while the surging oil price (+6.1% today) from persistent US-Iran tensions remains the single biggest risk to that scenario.

DAX is reclaiming the 25,500 zone — its highest level since the July 6 record high of 25,900.10 — with momentum supported by Deutsche Bank's record Q2 earnings beat and a resilient macro backdrop ahead of today's FOMC decision.

Main risk

Oil Price Spike & US-Iran Escalation Risk

Brent crude surged 6.1% to $83.4 today, reigniting fears of an inflationary shock that would complicate ECB policy and compress European equity multiples, particularly for energy-intensive DAX industrials.