DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX is re-challenging the 25,500–25,900 range breakout zone: a decisive daily close above 25,600 (prior July swing resistance) would re-open a test of the all-time intraday high at 25,900, while the Iran geopolitical risk premium and the ECB's rate-hold stance remain the key brakes on a full recovery.

The DAX is reclaiming the 25,500 zone — its highest level since the July 6 record high of 25,900.10 — powered by a better-than-expected IFO business climate print of 86.6 and Mercedes-Benz's 5%+ earnings surge, signalling momentum is returning after a 4% pullback.

Main risk

US-Iran Geopolitical Escalation Resuming

A renewed flare-up in US-Iran hostilities — as seen on July 9 when the DAX collapsed 568 points (2.23%) in a single session — remains the single largest tail risk, threatening to spike oil prices and derail the current recovery toward 25,900.