DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX's near-term fate hinges on whether the US-Iran ceasefire holds — a durable diplomatic resolution would collapse oil prices, remove the ECB's hawkish inflation argument, and likely propel the index back toward its 25,900 record high; a breakdown relights the bear case instantly.

The DAX is consolidating ~1,584 points (-5.9%) below its all-time intraday high of 25,900.10 (July 6), caught between a strong SAP-led earnings recovery and the headwinds of an ECB rate hike cycle and elevated oil prices from the US-Iran conflict.

Main risk

ECB September Rate Hike — Markets Pricing ~70% Probability

With markets pricing a ~70% chance of another 25bp ECB hike by end-2026 and German 2-year yields already at ~2.87%, tightening financial conditions threaten to cap DAX multiple expansion and pressure export-heavy industrials already squeezed by US tariffs.