DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX is in a recovery rally from the US-Iran conflict-driven selloff, with the all-time record intraday high at 25,900 (6 July) acting as the primary bull target — but the ECB's surprise rate hold on 23 July and elevated oil prices near $81 remain the twin obstacles to a fresh breakout.

DAX has rebounded from the 24,832 post-ECB hold low back above 25,400, reclaiming the key 25,000 psychological level and approaching the critical 25,464 prior session close (7 July swing high), suggesting buyers remain in control above the 50-day MA near 24,600.

Main risk

ECB Policy Reversal — Rate Hike Risk if Oil Stays Elevated

Analyst Robert Greil of Merck Finck warned the ECB can hardly avoid a second rate hike in 2026 if oil prices continue to rise, which would materially reprice DAX equities from current levels near 25,443.