DAX 40

Key insight

26,000 round-number resistance is the line in the sand — a daily close above it opens a measured run to the 2026 ATH zone near 26,800; failure traps bulls in a 25,400–26,000 range.

25,916 holds above the 200-day MA near 23,800 and the 2025 breakout zone at 24,500; EUR/USD firmness at 1.1192 limits export headwinds, keeping the path to 26,500 open.

Main risk

Oil crash to $95 — stagflation pivot risk

Oil -6.9% to $95.3 spooks energy stocks but signals global demand weakness; if it reads as recession, risk-off hits DAX exporters hardest.