DAX 40

Key insight

25,489 consolidates after ATH breakout; next resistance at 25,800 (measured Q3 channel top). Break above opens 26,000. Failure back below 25,000 flips structure bearish — that level is the line in the sand.

25,489 holds above the 25,000 round-number support — ATH breakout confirmed, trend intact with S&P 500 at 7,685 and EUR/USD stable at 1.1152 providing no FX headwind.

Main risk

Oil at $100.9 — energy cost shock risk

Oil holding $100.9/bbl squeezes German industrial margins; sustained break above $105 threatens DAX earnings, esp. chemicals and autos.