DAX 40

Key insight

25,365 intraday low from Wed holds for now — break below 25,200 (50-day MA) opens 24,800; Brent above $100 and Bund yield at 3.57% are the twin headwinds keeping the index pinned under 25,730 swing high.

Bund yield at 3.57% — multi-decade high — is compressing DAX equity premiums; 25,383 holds above 25,200 key support but 363-pt intraday range on Wed signals distribution near 25,700 resistance.

Main risk

ECB hawkishness — Bund yield at 3.57%

Flash composite PMI 53.1 (3.5-yr high) + Brent >$100 locks in ECB hike path; every 10bp rise in 10yr Bund compresses DAX P/E.