DAX 40

Key insight

Today's ECB decision — widely expected to hold rates — makes Lagarde's press conference the single most important event of the week; any hawkish signal on a September hike could snap the 24,800 support and extend the pullback from record highs.

The DAX is consolidating ~4% below its all-time high of 25,900.10 (July 6), stuck in a holding pattern as the ECB rate decision and SAP Q2 earnings act as near-term catalysts on either side.

Main risk

ECB September Rate Hike Signal

If President Lagarde signals that elevated oil-driven inflation warrants a September rate increase, the DAX could swiftly break below the 24,500 structural support level, invalidating the consolidation base.