DAX 40

Key insight

25,460 holds above the 25,000 breakout level but trails ATH by 1,158 pts — ECB hawkishness and $99 oil cap upside; a Fed hike Thu Sep 17 could flush the index toward 24,800.

Pulls back 3.3% from Aug 28 ATH at 26,618 — ECB hike, oil at $99 surging on Hormuz tensions, and Fed rate decision Thu Sep 17 all weigh on risk appetite.

Main risk

Fed rate decision – Thu Sep 17

Fed hike on Sep 17 would tighten global liquidity; DAX 200-day MA near 24,800 becomes first downside magnet on a hawkish surprise.