DAX 40

Key insight

25,324 sits in no-man's land: 50-day MA at 25,050 is the bull line in the sand; a weekly close below it reopens a test of 24,500, while a break above 25,800 all-time high targets 26,200.

25,324 holds above the 200-day MA (~24,800) but stalls below the 2026 high near 25,800 — momentum fading on low volume into a Friday close with EUR/USD at 1.1605 capping export-sector sentiment.

Main risk

EUR/USD strength at 1.1605

1.1605 EUR/USD compresses margins for DAX exporters (auto, industrials) — every 1% EUR gain historically shaves ~0.8% from DAX EPS estimates.