DAX 40

Key insight

25,420 sits between 25,200 (50-day MA) and 25,600 (Aug swing high) — neither side is committed; Oil shock at $97.8 raises input costs while EUR strength crimps exporters' earnings.

Holds 25,420 after -0.5% session — Oil +4% and EUR/USD at 1.1602 squeeze export margins; index stalls below 25,600 resistance without fresh catalyst.

Main risk

Oil spike to $97.8 (+4% session)

Crude at $97.8 lifts energy import costs for Germany's industrial base, compressing margins at BASF, BMW and peers already facing weak China demand.