DAX 40
NeutralArchived analysis from Sep 8, 2026, 3:30 AM
Key insight
26,618 ATH rejected; 26,022 holds as index awaits ECB Thursday. Break above 26,250 (Aug consolidation resistance) needed to retest highs; failure risks flush to 25,700 50-day MA.
Trading 596 pts below Aug-28 ATH of 26,618 — ECB rate decision Thursday (25 bps to 2.5% expected) and AfD Saxony-Anhalt win cloud Merz's reform agenda, capping upside.
Main risk
ECB rate decision – Sep 11
25-bps hike to 2.5% widely expected; hawkish guidance beyond Sep 11 would pressure rate-sensitive DAX names — Vonovia already -2.2% this week.
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