DAX 40

Key insight

Today's ECB rate decision at 13:45 CET is the single biggest near-term catalyst: the hold is priced in at 95%, so the entire market reaction hinges on whether Lagarde signals a September cut or remains hawkish due to sticky 2.8% eurozone inflation and Middle East oil risk.

The DAX is trading at 25,116 — holding above the key 25,000 psychological support but stuck 4% below the all-time high of 25,900.10, with today's ECB decision and elevated oil prices (Brent near $90) creating a binary catalyst environment.

Main risk

ECB Hawkish Surprise / Lagarde Press Conference Tone

If Lagarde pushes back on September cut expectations — citing 2.8% June CPI and elevated oil prices from US-Iran conflict — German Bund yields would spike, threatening a break back below the 25,000 level.