DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX has retreated ~3% from its 6 July all-time high of 25,900, and is now range-bound near 25,150 — the outcome of the ongoing Q2 earnings season and any fresh Middle East escalation will determine whether it reclaims the record or breaks below the 24,800 structural support.

The DAX is consolidating just above the psychologically critical 25,000 level, caught between earnings season optimism and persistent Middle East-driven oil inflation risk that forced the ECB into a surprise June hike to 2.25%.

Main risk

US-Iran conflict escalation driving oil price spike

A fresh military exchange in the Strait of Hormuz could reignite the energy-cost inflationary spiral that already forced the ECB to hike to 2.25% on 12 June, threatening both margins and further policy tightening that would compress DAX valuations.