DAX 40

Key insight

26,000 is the line in the sand: a daily close below it opens a retest of the 50-day MA near 25,400, while a sustained break above 26,200 ATH resistance unlocks a run toward 27,000.

26,121 holds above the 26,000 round-number support but stalls 80 pts below the all-time high zone near 26,200 — buyers and sellers in equilibrium pending a fresh macro catalyst.

Main risk

EUR/USD strength at 1.1583

EUR/USD at 1.1583 compresses DAX export earnings; every 1% EUR gain trims ~0.5% from index EPS — a sustained move above 1.17 would pressure consensus estimates.