DAX 40

Key insight

The ECB holds tomorrow (July 23) with rates expected unchanged at 2.25%, but Lagarde's tone on a potential September hike is the single biggest near-term catalyst for DAX direction — a hawkish surprise would pressure European equities hard.

DAX is trading at 25,057.75, reclaiming the critical 25,000 psychological level but sitting roughly 850 points below the all-time high at 25,900 set on July 6 — a zone of resistance reinforced by Middle East-driven volatility and an imminent ECB rate decision on July 23.

Main risk

ECB hawkish surprise — July 23 rate decision

Markets are already pricing a second 2026 hike given persistent inflation at 3.2%; if Lagarde signals an accelerated tightening path, DAX could re-test support at 24,500 (50-day MA area) rapidly.