DAX 40

Key insight

The single most important event this week is Thursday's ECB decision (July 23): markets price a hold at 2.25%, but any hawkish signal from Lagarde pointing to a September hike could knock the DAX below key 24,800 support and re-test the post-record pullback lows.

The DAX is consolidating at 25,065 — well off its 6 July all-time high of 25,900 — caught between a bullish structural uptrend driven by European rearmament and sector rotation, and a bearish drag from ECB tightening fears and persistent US-Iran geopolitical risk.

Main risk

ECB July 23 Rate Decision & Lagarde Press Conference

Markets price a 70% probability of a September rate hike; a hawkish Lagarde reinforcing that expectation could push German Bund yields sharply higher, pressuring DAX valuations and breaking the 24,800 structural support.