DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX is trapped in a post-ATH correction phase: the 25,000 round-number level has flipped from support to resistance, and Thursday's ECB decision — a hold is priced in but Lagarde's tone on September could be the swing factor — will set the near-term direction.

The DAX has pulled back ~4.2% from its all-time high of 25,900.10 (July 6) and is trading below the key 25,000 psychological level, with the ECB's hawkish June hike to 2.40% and Middle East-driven oil inflation capping the recovery.

Main risk

ECB Lagarde Press Conference Tone — July 23

If Lagarde signals a second 2026 rate hike is likely in September, European equity valuations face immediate re-rating pressure and the DAX could retest the 24,400–24,500 range.