DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX is in record-high territory after breaking 25,923 resistance with conviction, but a potential US-Iran Strait of Hormuz deal is the single biggest binary catalyst that could either supercharge the rally or, if it collapses, trigger a sharp risk-off reversal in energy-exposed European industrials.

The DAX is consolidating just above the prior breakout level of 25,923 after printing successive all-time highs above 26,300, with the broader uptrend intact and Q2 earnings season delivering net positive surprises.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Negotiations Breakdown / US-Iran Geopolitical Shock

A collapse in the reported 60-day interim Hormuz passage deal between Washington, Tehran, and Oman would spike oil prices further beyond the current $75.8, hammering European industrial and consumer stocks that dominate the DAX.