DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX is trading in uncharted territory above 26,000 for the first time ever — the path of least resistance is higher as long as US-Iran talks hold and oil remains capped below $80.

The DAX has broken decisively above the prior resistance zone of 25,875 (July resistance / upper Bollinger Band) to print fresh all-time highs, driven by US-Iran diplomatic progress and strong Q2 earnings from Siemens Healthineers and Deutsche Telekom.

Main risk

US-Iran talks collapse / Strait of Hormuz re-escalation

A breakdown in US-Iran negotiations could reverse the sharp oil decline (Brent -2.7% today to ~$76.7) and send European equities sharply lower, directly undercutting the sentiment tailwind that drove Monday's 1.46% record-breaking rally.