DAX 40

Key insight

The DAX is within 180 points of its all-time record high of 25,900.10 — a clean break above that level on strong volume would open a measured-move target near 26,500, but the ECB's stagflationary dilemma (2.25% deposit rate, 0.8% GDP growth, inflation near 3%) caps the upside and raises the probability of a September hike that could reprice equities lower.

The DAX is surging on the final session of July, challenging the all-time record high of 25,900.10 set on July 6, with Infineon (+7.33%) and Siemens Energy (+4.26%) leading a broad tech-and-industrial rebound on end-of-month window dressing and receding oil price pressure.

Main risk

ECB September rate hike + Eurozone CPI July print (today)

Economists expect July Eurozone CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.8%, and many expect the ECB to follow its June 25bp hike with a second move in September — a hot print today could trigger an immediate hawkish reprice, pressuring the DAX back below the 25,460 prior consolidation support.