Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin is staging a critical test of its 50-month EMA at ~$65,600 — a clean break above this level would shift the structure from resistance to support and open the door toward $70,000–$75,000, while failure here re-exposes the June low at $58,115.

BTC has recovered from the June low near $58,115 and is now retesting its 50-month EMA resistance around $65,600, with today's +2.04% move suggesting renewed buying momentum above the key $62,000–$63,000 reclaim zone.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Decision & Fed Policy Stance (Kevin Warsh era)

Markets assign ~70% probability to a Fed hold at the July 28–29 meeting with residual risk skewed to a hike rather than a cut under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, removing near-term monetary tailwind for risk assets including BTC.