Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin has decoupled from equities in the immediate post-Fed session (S&P 500 worst-ever 'Fed Day' under new chair Warsh, down 1.5%) while BTC rallied 2%+ — a relative strength signal worth watching, but the 50-month EMA at ~$65,600 remains a hard ceiling until decisively broken.

BTC is trading at $64,848 — just below the critical 50-month EMA resistance at ~$65,600 — after the Fed delivered a hawkish hold with a rare 3-member dissent, leaving risk assets under pressure but crypto relatively resilient.

Main risk

FOMC Hawkish Dissent & Warsh Policy Path

Three Fed members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a hike — the sharpest FOMC split since September 2016 — raising the risk of a surprise hike at the September 15–16 meeting that would crater risk assets including BTC.