Bitcoin

Key insight

BTC's inability to reclaim $65,000 amid a hawkish Fed bias (35.8% rate-hike probability at the July 28–29 FOMC) and today's critical Q2 GDP and PCE prints makes the downside path more probable than a recovery rally in the near term.

Bitcoin remains trapped below the key $65,000 resistance and is down over 49% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, with the Fear & Greed Index at 28 (Fear) and cumulative 2026 ETF outflows still at $4.84 billion, signalling persistent institutional distribution.

Main risk

Fed hawkish surprise — 25bps rate hike at July 28–29 FOMC

CME FedWatch showed a 35.8% probability of a surprise 25bps hike as of July 28, and any confirmation of tightening would likely accelerate selling pressure below the $62,000 prior support zone.