Bitcoin

Key insight

The Fed decision outcome today is the single most binary catalyst for BTC — a hold with hawkish guidance could flush BTC back toward the $58,115 June low, while a dovish pivot signal could ignite a relief rally through $65,600 resistance.

BTC is trading below the 50-month EMA at ~$65,600, which has flipped from support to resistance, capping all recent rally attempts while the Fed's July 28–29 meeting leaves a residual rate-hike tail risk in play.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision & Forward Guidance

Markets price ~70% probability of a hold but with a residual hike tail risk rather than a cut; any hawkish surprise or stagflation language from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could trigger a sharp de-risking wave, breaking the $62,500 near-term support floor.