Bitcoin

Key insight

The FOMC decision due today (July 29) is the single most important binary event for BTC right now: a hawkish hold or surprise hike would likely flush BTC toward the June swing low at $58,115, while a dovish pause could finally break the 50-month EMA ceiling at $65,600.

Bitcoin is trading below the key 50-month EMA at $65,600, which has flipped from structural support to resistance, capping every intraday rally while the Fed's July 28–29 meeting outcome — with a non-trivial hike probability — hangs over risk assets.

Main risk

FOMC July 29 Rate Decision — Hawkish Surprise

Markets price a ~70% chance of a hold but the residual probability skews toward a hike, not a cut; any hawkish surprise would reinforce the 50-month EMA resistance at $65,600 and accelerate selling toward $58,115.