Bitcoin

Key insight

Today's FOMC decision is the single biggest near-term catalyst — a surprise rate hike (35.8% probability per CME FedWatch) could flush BTC decisively below the $62,500 50-day MA, while a hold with dovish guidance would fuel a relief rally toward $68,000–$70,000.

BTC holds just above its 50-day MA (~$62,500) at $63,960 but remains over 49% below the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, with the market paralysed ahead of today's FOMC rate decision under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Decision — Fed Chair Warsh Hike Risk

CME FedWatch shows a 35.8% probability of a rate hike at today's 2:00 PM ET decision, up sharply from 25.7% last week; Warsh has abandoned forward guidance habits making the outcome genuinely unpredictable.