Bitcoin

Key insight

The July 28–29 FOMC decision is the single most important near-term catalyst: with ~70% odds the Fed holds and the residual risk skewed toward a hike (not a cut), Bitcoin has no central-bank tailwind today.

BTC has retreated -1.59% to $63,947 and is trading below the critical 50-month EMA at ~$65,600, which has flipped from support to resistance and is actively capping recovery rallies.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Decision — Hawkish Hold or Surprise Hike

Markets price ~70% probability of a hold at the July 28–29 meeting but residual odds point to a hike rather than a cut; any hawkish surprise or aggressive dot-plot language could send BTC sharply toward the $58,115 June low.