Bitcoin

Key insight

The July 28–29 FOMC meeting is the single most critical catalyst for BTC right now — a hawkish hold or higher-for-longer signal from Chair Warsh could flush BTC back toward the $58,000 June lows, while any dovish pivot would be the trigger for a relief rally.

BTC is pressing directly against the $63,800 key resistance level with fear sentiment at 29 (extreme fear) and spot ETF outflows accelerating into the July 28–29 FOMC decision under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Main risk

FOMC Decision — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh July 28–29

Warsh, confirmed in a 54-45 Senate vote, is seen as more hawkish than Powell; a signal of higher-for-longer rates would accelerate capital rotation out of non-yielding BTC, threatening a break below the $62,000 50-day MA support.