Bitcoin

Key insight

Bitcoin has reversed sharply from yesterday's $65,210 level (down ~$1,730 intraday), slipping back beneath the 50-month EMA at $65,600 — the very level that flipped from support to resistance — and the FOMC decision tomorrow is the binary event that could either stabilise or accelerate the selloff.

Bitcoin has broken back below the critical $65,600 50-month EMA resistance and is testing the $63,000 psychological floor amid US-Iran geopolitical tensions and a Fed that markets price at 70% odds to hold — or potentially hike — at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Hike Risk

Markets assign a ~70% probability to a hold, but the residual risk skews to a hike rather than a cut; a surprise hike or an aggressively hawkish statement from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would crush risk assets and send BTC toward $58,115.