Bitcoin

Key insight

BTC is pinned at the 50-month EMA (~$65,600) — the exact level that flipped from multi-year support to resistance — with Wednesday's Fed decision the binary catalyst that will either force a breakout or confirm rejection.

Bitcoin is consolidating just below its critical 50-month EMA resistance at ~$65,600, with the Iran–U.S. geopolitical pause lifting risk appetite, but the looming FOMC decision on July 28–29 suppressing decisive directional momentum.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Hike Surprise

Markets price a ~70% chance of a hold but a residual hike risk; a hawkish surprise or prolonged 'higher for longer' signal from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would crush risk assets and push BTC back toward the $58,115 June low.