Bitcoin

Key insight

BTC is trading in a make-or-break zone directly beneath the 50-month EMA at $65,600 — a clean break and hold above this level is the minimum requirement to unlock a trend recovery toward the $70,000–$75,000 consensus target range.

Bitcoin is wrestling with its 50-month EMA at ~$65,600, a level that flipped from support to resistance after the drawdown from the October 2025 ATH of $126,198, making this the single most critical near-term pivot.

Main risk

FOMC Meeting (July 28–29) — Rate Hike Risk

Markets price a ~70% chance the Fed holds at July 28–29, but the residual risk skews toward a hike rather than a cut, which would strengthen the USD and weigh heavily on risk assets including BTC.